An unfortunate turn of events

Being overseas at the moment, I'd missed the fact that Lawrence Springborg had resigned at QLD Coalition and Nationals leader. This has to be one of the biggest steps backwards for conservative forces in the state in recent times. Springborg was a good leader - he was well respected and trusted throughout QLD, and was a premier in waiting - waiting for his Liberal Party counterparts to finally get it right. In Springborg, the Nationals had their last chance of another Nationals Premier of Queensland. They will never have a better chance than they did with Springborg. The status quo in Queensland will remain until the Liberal Party puts aside factional fighting and puts forwards some talented and promising politicians. A credible alternative premier will now need to be sourced from the Liberal Party - and none is forthcoming until the next election.

My prediction is that Anna Bligh will now claim succession to the role of Premier within the next term, and Beattie will retire as one of the most popular, but incompetent Premiers of all time. His legacy is not one that Anna Bligh should be looking forwards to inheriting, by any means! Unless a saviour figure emerges from the Coalition within the next term, will we see another 5 - 6 years of Labor government in Queensland.

Now if only Springborg had the will to fight it out as Opposition leader for another term....

Religion by the sword....

I have had several arguments lately with non-christian co-workers who do not believe Christians have the right to point fingers over violence and war justified by religious doctrine. The Pope's use of a medievel quote criticising spreading Islam by the sword has been the catalyst for violence and demonstrating by fundamentalist Muslims around the world. In a way, the violent rhetoric and actions by these fundamentalists strengthened the Pope's arguement that war and violence is not justified by God. Not having studied the Koran and Islamic texts enough to form a decisive opinion, I had until now been reduced to defending Christian theology. The New Testament sets a new covenant and Jesus Christ clearly outlines God's expectations of Christians - non violence is a key component.

I came across an excellent piece by Mark Durie, Creed of the sword,In the Weekend Australian. This article raises several questions that the Islamic world needs to ask itself. Muslims are taught that Mohammed is the last in the line of prophets that extend from Abraham to Jesus. Jesus is reduced to just a prophet, and not the son of God. Mohammed and the Koran is the last 'definitive guide' - much as Christians consider the New Testament as the definitive text over the Old Testament, or Torah. To me a lot of the Islamic teaching seems to be closer to Old Testament convenants, stepping away from the personal, non violent message of Jesus Christ. Read the article and see what you think...

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20460114-601,00.html

Another excellent piece on the failure of Australian Islamic leaders to address the key issues raised in the recent debate, this time by Paul Kelly....

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20460113-601,00.html

Turnbull's views on Hezbollah

"Hezbollah, like all effective terrorist organisations, embeds itself in the community, their fighters seeking to be, in Mao’s words, fish swimming in the sea of the people.
Civilian casualties are a terrorist objective. When Hezbollah fires missiles from a Lebanese village or locates its headquarters in a crowded suburb it does so in the expectation that retaliation will likely result in civilian casualties and pictures of wounded women and children on the evening news. Their calculation is that these civilian casualties will inflame global opinion against Israel and reinforce the local population’s hatred for Israel and support for Hezbollah."

Malcolm Turnbull has a well written arguement on the subject of the recent Lebanese conflict - see the full post at the url below...

http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/news/article.aspx?ID=521

Goward gets her ticket

After a sometimes bitter campaign to parachute into the blue ribbon Sydney seat of Epping (despite living in Yass), it appears that Pru Goward will finally get her ticket. Greg Smith (who lives in the seat), a highly credentialed candidate, was dogged throughout the campaign because he was the Right's choice - and everyone knows the NSW Liberal Right is evil (well according to Fairfax and the ABC anyway). Despite being a model candidate for preselection, his ties to David Smith doomed him to weeks of bad press and a grubby attack on his record as the Deputy Director of Public Prosecutions in NSW upon winning preselection.

NSW definetly seems to be a little different to the other Eastern states at the moment - high profile candidates are fighting for pre-selection at a state level. This is a very positive sign for the future of the NSW Liberal Party, one that is not being seen in either Queensland or Victoria. Where as the majority of talent is still flowing to Federal seats in all other states, the fortunes of NSW Liberals definetly seem to be improving.

Hezbollah - the party of God ?

Hezbollah - the 'freedom fighting' organisation that so many from the left have championed and called for removal from Australia's terrorist organisation list. Hezbollah - also the same organisation that according to Forbes magazine is involved in international criminal operations to build its funds for the ultimate destruction of Israel.

"Like the Mafia of old, Hezbollah also gets its hands dirty with drug trafficking, some of it here in the U.S. The Drug Enforcement Administration busted a pseudoephedrine ring in 2002, claiming that it funneled cash to Hezbollah... Last year Rady Zaiter, a Lebanese citizen, was arrested in Colombia for allegedly heading a cocaine smuggling outfit in Ecuador that sent most of its profits to Hezbollah. The Party of God gets $10 million a year from the area where Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina meet, says a U.S. Naval War College report...

One lucky nab: Assad Barakat, a Hezbollah treasurer known for extracting protection money from Lebanese shopkeepers in South America hoping to keep their relatives back home safe from harm. Barakat was sentenced to six and a half years in a Paraguay jail." -Hezbollah's Hoard Nathan Vardi, Forbes Magazine 08.14.06

Drug trafficking, smuggling, extortion and standover tactics - oh but they are giving $15,000 to each Lebanese family whose house was destroyed by the conflict with Israel (instigated after Hezbollah attacked a border station in Israel, killed several soldiers and kidnapped two others). Just a shame that $15,000 is being funded by the $100 million (also from Forbes) the Iranian regime contributes to Hezbollah. Hezbollah has a win win situation - increased funding from extemists after instigating conflict with Israel, coming off as the good guy (rather than the parasite they are) when they give the homeless money (homes destroyed as a result of Hezbollah's actions and insistence on using houses as 'shields for military infrastructure and bases) and getting the Left to attack Israel and the US, supporting Hezbollah instead.

Just if you didn't know, Hezbollah was formed as an Iranian proxy in Lebanon in 1982. Its three aims were the eradication of Western imperialism in Lebanon, the transformation of Lebanon's multi-faith state into an Islamic state (Hezbollah has since distanced itself from this policy, which is a relief im sure to the sizeable minority of Lebanese Christians), and the complete destruction of the state of Israel. The final aim hasn't changed... it is a little hard to claim to be a legitimate resistance movement whilst maintaining a goal that is inherrently offensive (do you think Israel will just capitulate because Hezbollah defends Lebanon? Offensive action by Hezbollah against Israel is clearly required)....

I find little to justify an organisation that uses criminal activites, drug trafficking, extortion and promotes the killing of innocent Israeli civilians (women and children included) being called a party of God.

Election fallout continues...

"Queensland goes to the polls tomorrow with voters facing a clear choice. They can vote for more of a Beattie Labor government with proven failings, or a stumbling Coalition that has failed to prove anything" - Editorial, The Australian 08 Sept 2006

Rob Borbidge emerged from the land of political failures to heap praise upon the QLD Labor party, labelling it as the most effective political machine in the country. Nothing could be further from the truth - as the quote from the The Australian states, this victory had more to do with the lack of a credible alternative than brilliant performance and campaigning from Labor. The QLD Coalition went into this election with heavy media coverage of two major issues: the failure of a National - Liberal merger, and the Liberal party dumping its leader Bob Quinn days before the next election was to be called. Springborg and Flegg once again failed to demonstrate credibility and capability in the form of an alternative government. When there is no alternative, you stick with what you've got - it is as simple as that. The small changes in vote percentages could be attributed with the capitulation of the One Nation vote and redistribution of its former supporters to the other parties. Without this change, the percentages would have been almost exactly the same as the last election.

"What I think went wrong is that the Opposition parties, the Coalition parties, made themselves the issue...what has happened here is that we took the focus off the Labor Party and made ourselves the issue, and of course the people of Queensland reacted accordingly."

- QLD Senator Santo Santoro

Several papers, including the Sunday Mail, are feeding speculation that Springborg may be dumped as Nationals and Coalition leader. Bruce Flegg is only safe because leadership aspirant Michael Caltabiano was given his marching orders after an ingloriously short time in Parliament. The problem for future campaigns for the Coaliton is now the fact that they have failed to captialse on such bad performance by the Beattie Government - a lot of soul searching and reinstigating confidence in both Coalition parties is needed.

QLD 2006 - the fall out begins...

We always knew that Catalbiano had a fight on his hands with a well known former channel nine identity up against him. Chris Bombalas has sent one of the key powerbrokers in the Queensland Liberals back to the private sector, and has sured up Bruce Flegg's leadership at the same time. Beattie's crulest blow has most definetly been robbing the Liberals of one of their future hopes - unless Flegg blossoms with experience, the Liberal resurgence has been put back several years.

Gaven just showed how stupid it is to install National Party candidates as coalition choices in metropolitan seats. The Liberal party is the key to metropolitan seats in South East Queensland - I cannot see a time where the National Party will ever hold more than 20 seats in Queensland again (particularly if compulsory preferencing was introduced).

So in the wash up, has this been another spectacular Beattie victory, driven by a high performing incumbent government? In my view, this could not be further from the truth. This election campaign highlighted how bad the current Queensland Government is, and what is worse, what a poor alternative the voters have been presented in the Springborg - Flegg coalition. Voters are waiting to dump Beattie in a landslide - and given a credible alternative government, the 'baseball bats' will come out....

QLD 2006: Predictions

Much to my disgust, I have been disenfranchised for the 2006 QLD State Election - ahhh the price of being on Operations! The cut off for postal votes was Tuesday - right about the time I was happily handing excess water bottles out to Iraqi kids in a nice little rural desert town, Busayyah (See my Iraqi Letters link for that side of my life).

I've had little time to analyse the campaigns for both sides, but here goes. Labor will be returned - it might drop a seat or two, but it will be returned comfortably. The protest vote against some of the worst Governance Queensland has ever seen will be almost completely cancelled out by a protest vote against one of the most ordinary Coalitions Queensland has ever seen. Bruce Flegg has sustained some deep wounds throughout the campaign - his inexperience has been used by media and Labor alike. I am understanding now my Michael Caltabiano was so ready to seemingly leave his leadership aspirations alone and support Bruce Flegg as the new Liberal leader - the timing was not at all right.

It is my opinion that the next Coalition government of QLD will have to be one of a Liberal majority. The Coalition will stay in opposition as long as the Nationals maintain the balance of power, simply because this will mean that the vast majority of metropolitan seats will be in Labor's hands.

I'll be keenly crunching the numbers and fall out after the Labor victory tomorrow....

Increases to the Army: Movement in the right direction

So 3 RAR is now moving to Townsville, giving a 3rd infantry battalion to the city! This will increase employment and deliver flow on effects to the local economy, a welcome plus for North Queensland. 8/9 RAR will be re-raised in Brisbane, allowing 7 Brigade to become more than the toothless tiger it has become. 5/7 RAR will be split, with 7 RAR remaining in Darwin, and 5 RAR moving to Adelaide - again increasing employment and delivering flow on effects to the SA economy (much needed given its manufacturing sector woes).

This decision allows the ADF, and the Army in particular, to contribute to the many international security situations that arise, as well as having the ability to respond at short notice to situations in our own region. For too long the Army has been held back due to the percieved need to keep something in reserve for the region. Timor and the Solomon Islands type conflicts require a short term Army presence before a handover to the Australian Federal Police. The Army should not be kept in 'the garage' for low level conflict such as this. As the defence minister said, Australia is a country that likes to play its part in the world - not sit back in our own backyard and shirk responsibility. Australia is affected by international events far from our shores, so we should be prepared to contribute to international security - it is after all, in our best interests.

The Army will be able to maintain the current tempo ( even at its highest, with Iraq, Timor and Afghanistan occuring at once ) easily with this increase to manning. Our Army is becoming combat experienced, and all the more better for it. Australia is playing its part in international security and should continue to do so. I cringe at the thought of returning to a 'defence of mainland Australia' attitude that was so prevelant under the Labor governments.