Kevin Rudd is an energetic, ambitious and cunning political operative - his short time in the spotlight has confirmed this. What interests me now is what are his long term strategic moves - what decisions he is undertaking with only his inner circle to solidify his leadership position and cut down his rivals.
As many commentators have mentioned, Rudd mounted a successful leadership challenge as part of a team, the 'dream team' pairing of himself and Julia Gillard. Gillard provided valuable support, particularly when rumours abound that Rudd is not well liked by his colleagues and has few close friends on the opposition benches. Gillard herself was in contention when leadership challenges were discussed by the media, but probably realised that she did not have the numbers to match Beazley, or convince Rudd to be the junior partner in the marriage of convenience. However this now leaves Rudd in a difficult place - his strongest rival is now in a high profile shadow ministry of her choosing, facing off against a much less talented member of the Government that in her previous job of health. Rudd must realise that if Labor fails to win the next election, he could face the very real possibility of fending of a leadership challenge from Gillard - something that many of her supporters who voted for Rudd (only because he wasn't Beazley) would welcome.
So how does Rudd subtly undermine Gillard's position in a way that doesn't damage his own leadership position and election chances? Paul Kelly puts forward the idea of backing down from Beazley's IR promises with less drastic changes like re-introducing the no disadvantage test rather than ripping up hundreds of thousands of AWA's (including Rudd's new staff who are all to be employed on AWA's - that's another story). This would sieze the iniative on I.R. from the coalition, who are currently sitting back watching jobs growth and wage increases, preparing to mount one giant counter offensive against Labor and their Union bedfellows. It would also put Gillard in the embarassing position of having to sell the backdown to both the media, Unions and Australian public - after going on record this week stating that no such backdown will occur.
I'm not sure that Rudd possesses the necessary political capital to achieve such a brave and potentially rewarding manouevre. The Unions are dead set on returning their power to levels not seen since the 70's and 80's, not just maintaining their current weak grasp on influence - this election represents perhaps their last chance to do so. Rudd would have to win the next election to have any hope of his leadership lasting - his enemies would be baying for blood even if Labor greatly improved their position but lost the election. Instead I beleive he will rely on Gillard being unable to perform under the pressure of the election - Abbott had her measure easily during her time in the shadow health portfolio, and I suspect many on the opposition benches think her opportunities have fallen into her lap simply because of profile and sex, rather than merit.
Julia Gillard faces a challenging scenario - win the election and she will be hailed a success... and then will face a long wait as PM Rudd seeks to become the longest serving Labor PM in history. Lose the election and the Unions will seek to blame her for being unable to shield them from the vicious blow of Work Choices. I'm sure Rudd realises this - he is most likely growing in comfort as his own proflie rises at a higher rate than Gillards. This makes specualtion of Rudd building a shadow cabinet without space that can be vacated for little Billy Shorten interesting. It points to Rudd already considering the longer term - planning to keep another potential messiah on the backbench for a little longer, buying his own leadership further time.
Now we have the opportunity to sit back and watch a very interesting stage in ALP history unfold....
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