Fast forward to 2050...

The year is now 2050. What do you think will have had a bigger impact on the world - climate change or population ageing and decrease in the developed world? The coming crisis is already dawning on Japan - in Europe, the signs are there to be read.

Regardless of weather the world decides to inflict draconian carbon reduction measures upon itself, the age 'shock' will still hit Europe and most of the developed world in the middle decades of this century.

Post - Christian society is by its own definition rapidly heading towards extinction. We are on the cusp on witnessing self - inflicted civilisation collapse - a phenomena not seen since perhaps the Mayans or Easter Islanders 'euthanized' their civilisation. This is an occurrence that is not observed in any other species - a self determined slide into extinction. Post - Christian Europe is declining at a rate that means that recovery is not possible in most European nations without huge injections of immigrants (and that those immigrants do not adopt the characteristics of their host nation).

Peter Costello released his second Inter generational Report today. The Coalition government has made significant inroads from the state of the nation inherited from the Keating government. Building on superannuation, Costello has engineered a future fund to provide funds for Government superannuation liabilities, paid off Labor Government debt and delivered policies that have seen the birth rate rise from 1.7 to 1.8 per woman. This is still below the necessary 2.1 rate that would enable Australia's current standard of living to be maintained with a stable working population. The challenge for federal government is to devise policy to encourage an increase in birth rate that will truly see 'Advance Australia Fair'.

Campbell quites cabinet...

Those three words guarantee Rudd the toughest week yet of his fledgling leadership. In a move almost certainly engineered to throw momentum back behind the Government in the pursuit of Rudd, Campbell has resigned from cabinet. I'm sure we'll see a return to cabinet in the future, or favour granted to Campbell for 'taking it for the team', just as we'll see a growing storm of media intensity come Monday. The Government has set the bar for dealing with Brian Burke - a bar too high for Rudd. Instead of dulling the relentless attacks in parliament we saw Rudd endure on Friday, the Government now has the ability to shift the attack up a gear.

This next week will be all about Rudd being on the back foot - desperately trying to regain the friendly media environment of his honeymoon, vainly trying to set the focus on his agenda, whilst remaining embroiled in the Brian Burke saga.

The honeymoon is over... time for the real 'action' to begin...

An amazing thing happened today - Kevin Rudd was held accountable, criticised even. It made me remember what normal political commentary is all about - holding both sides of politics accountable. I breathed a sigh of release at the inevitable crash to reality occurring for our fearless new Labor leader - and my didn't he handle it well. Sunrise was priceless - almost as funny as watching an unprepared Kochie take on Andrew Bolt in a global warming debate earlier in the week.

What amuses me about the whole situation is how the media itself declared the honeymoon over - like they officially grant a 3 month waiver or something. 'The honeymoon is over'... now we will actually ask questions that don't pander to the press release. You have to love the 5th estate!

I am thankful for one thing. Finally we are treated to a realistic bout between Howard and Rudd - no longer will we be forced to endure 'both side of the road' Rudd facing up against 'every thing's bad' Howard. Rudd facing up to realistic commentary will be interesting - something tells me that he will not handle it all that well. After all, he is no Howard - Rudd has had a easy road to power when compared to Howard...

Meanwhile Peter Costello continues to build his momentum - both Rudd and Howard will be haunted by the influence and power that he will exert over the next decade!

Bring it you Vichy French little bitches...

"ACCORDING to my dictionary, the word "ally" comes from the Old French. Very Old French, I'd say. For the New French, the word has a largely postmodern definition of "duplicitous charmer who undermines you at every opportunity".
For the less enthusiastically obstructive NATO members, "ally" means "wealthy country with no military capability that requires years of diplomatic wooing and black-tie banquets in order to agree to a token contribution of 23.08 troops." Incidentally, that 23.08 isn't artistic licence on my part. The 2004 NATO summit in Turkey was presented as a triumph of multilateral co-operation because the 26 members agreed to contribute between them an additional 600 troops and three helicopters to the Afghan mission. That's 23.08 troops and a ninth of a helicopter per ally. In fairness, Turkey chipped in the three helicopters single-handed, though the deal required them to return to Ankara after three months.
And these days troops is something of an elastic term, too. In Norwegian, it means "fighting men who are prepared to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Americans, as long as they don't have to do any fighting and there are at least two provinces between their shoulders and the American ones". That's to say, Norway is "participating" in Afghanistan, but, because its troops are "not sufficiently trained to take part in combat", they've been mainly back at the barracks manning the photocopier or staging amateur performances of Peer Gynt for the amusement of US special forces who like nothing better than to unwind with five acts of Ibsen after a hard day hunting the Taliban. "

Conservative and unapologetic about it - I'm sold, America Alone is my first purchase of the weekend as soon as I get into Angus and Roberston (t-ville has no borders, let alone a Myer).
Quit whingeing about Hicks and get a life.....

Hey and why don't you demand your right to disrupt the traffic of hundreds of thousands to parade your bigoted anti-American opinions down main street Sydney with your all of two hundred turn out... leftist wankers...

Was the age opinion editor on holidays?

How did a story like this get printed over yet another David Hicks / Climate Change / John Howard is the devil op-ed piece? One of the most interesting, yet unrealised attribute of the liberal left in recent times has been the alliance with extremist Muslim interest groups. A short glance at the 2006 Israel - Hezbollah conflict, Iraq and even Iran - all situations where the Left has chosen the side of extremists with ideologies diametrically opposed in every way except for a common hatred of the USA.

What does it say about the liberal left when they would rather side with dictators, terrorists and those that do not abide by the laws of armed conflict in any way, shape or form than the democratic USA?

When 'bringing home the troops' means leaving 900 indefinitely in Iraq...

Australian has 1400 troops deployed in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Kevin Rudd has promised to bring them home - in consultation with our allies. In doing so Rudd has won the kudos of the anti-Bush, anti-war in Iraq pundits, while claiming to also protect our relations with our allies in the US and UK.

What the press has failed to seize on, and it is indicative that the honeymoon is still in bloom, is the fact that Rudd is really bringing just 500 troops home. This leaves almost two thirds of the current commitment in Iraq. While professing an ideological belief that we should withdraw our troops, his actions speak much louder than his words - 900 troops remain without a time line for withdrawal. Rudd heavily criticised Howard's lack of stated timeline (although stating a time for withdrawal worked so well for the US in Vietnam and Somalia!!) for withdrawal, while glossing over the fact that he has only announced a plan for Overwatch Battle Group West.

The Overwatch Battlegroup is supporting two provinces already under Iraqi control - being As Samawah and Dhi Qar. Australians provide training, civil-military liaison, engineering and medical support as well as a back up for Iraqi forces in the worst case scenario.

Rudd and Labor claim that a withdrawal would trigger more action by the Iraqi Government to look after its own problem. His policy however, withdraws the only Australian element that is providing invaluable support to provinces only recently handed over to full Iraqi control.

The most glaringly obvious fault in this plan has been shown in Rudd's avoidance of answering questions on what he believes will happen to Iraq should a full withdrawal occur. This is because he knows very well that whatever the level of human suffering Iraq currently has, what will follow a withdrawal will be one of the bloodiest civil wars the world has seen. The civil war would surely drag Iraq's neighbours into a destabilising catastrophe that has the potential to dramatically affect the Middle East, and the world. Terrorist extremists will emerge greatly strengthened, and the US will withdraw to an increasingly isolationist stance that will greatly increase instability in the international environment.

Rudd knows this - that why he can never answer the question when put to him - it clearly shows that he is willing to make poor security decisions to gain popular support. The hard decisions are better left to Howard, someone who doesn't shirk from an unpopular, but necessary decision.

Costello shows Turnbull who really commands the floor...

There has been some talk of Turnbull's flair and colourful style in the press this week, but the true performer was Costello. In a week where Howard took more punishment than he inflicted, Costello rattled Rudd with some cutting question time performance.

"Labor is drawing inspiration for its economic analysis from a Donald Duck magazine. This is the evolutionary cycle of the Labor Party. We have moved from Mark Latham's roosters to Kevin Rudd's ducks...Managing the Australian economy, which is a $1 trillion economy, takes experience and commitment and you do not get your analysis from Donald Duck comics. It is much more serious than that. That is why only a Coalition government can manage the Australian economy."

Rudd paused - winced perhaps - from his normal routine of studying correspondence in an uninterested manner while the Coalition responded to questions. What is interesting is to think about the future - when Costello shapes up against Rudd as leader of the Coalition. Rudd may think he has the measure of Howard as 'yesterday's man', but in Costello he faces a seasoned veteran who is still quite young in the political world. Costello possesses the trust of many Australians for presiding over a strong economy for over a decade, but would also deliver a fresh purpose and agenda to the Coalition government.

My tip is for this match up to occur shortly after the Howard government is returned with a reduced majority. Howard will bow out, bruised but not beaten, and Costello will finally take the job he has been heir apparent for since the beginnings of the Howard government.

Coal: the 2007 wedge issue?

Bob Brown and Tim Flannery may just be making Howard's job of retaining office a little easier. The battleground is becoming clear - mounting a credible campaign on global warming, while reassuring the nation that the cost will not be too great is essential for victory. Brown and the green extremists have played their cards - revealing that they wish to destroy the coal industry in the name of climate change. Rudd has been quick to distance himself, but will he really be able to play the environmentally friendly, do deals with the Greens for preferences and still be able to convince coal miners and their dependant communities that Howard wouldn't be a safer bet?

I've always thought that a major commitment to cleaner coal in the short term, and clean coal (sequestration ) in the long term would be a critical component of a realistic response to climate change. Australia's comparative advantage in coal, with plentiful reserves, and our major coal export market means abandoning coal would be a massive cost to bear.

Rudd now needs to straddle the divide - show that he is business and mining friendly enough to protect coal, but at the same time green enough to win critical Greens preferences (and convince the punters that he won't do deals with the Greens if he wins office in the senate). It will be a hard ask - Rudd already has the difficult issue of keeping Peter Garrett's moral convictions in check, and a nuclear debate at the next Labor convention.

It will be interesting to see this wedge unfold... Howard is a master politician and will be likely to employ coal along side nuclear in his arsenal of wedge politics in the lead up to the 2007 federal election.

Malcolm needs to sharpen his message...

Just watched a rather average 'debate' format unfold on the 7.30 report. Malcolm Turnbull and Peter Garrett faced off in a interview style 'debate' that saw Turnbull normally lead with Garrett following. This led to Turnbull being on the defensive for the majority of the interview, while Garrett was able to stick to his message and mount an offensive interview. Kerry O'Brien's line of questioning did assist Turnbull's poor performance, but there was no excuse for a lacklustre performance from Turnbull.

Malcolm allowed himself to waffle, often using several quotes in a ineffective manner and being unable to stick to his message. This is the second interview I've seen him botch - its time he and his inner circle do a little work to sharpen his interviewing skills.

Peter Garrett was underwhelming - it wasn't a case of Turnbull being outperformed and forced into a poor showing by a superior debater. Turnbull will have no problem head to head with Garrett once the necessary improvements are made. Parliamentary performance is a different matter - Turnbull has been capturing significant media attention in Question Time, and is clearly out performing Garrett. His television performance is the key area that is letting him down...

Republican dilemmas...

I am watching the US Presidential nomination campaigns with interest. Whilst the Democrats will struggle to choose between Obama, Clinton and Edwards, there would be few members of the party that would complain about a lack of talent in the field. A quick glance over at the Republican side of the house, and there is a far different scenario. Senator John McCain leads a field of nobodies, with his only real challenger at this time deemed to be former New York mayor Rudy Guiliani. Both McCain and Guiliani have little to no support within the traditional Republican voter base - Guiliani is a 'liberal' Republican and McCain's disregard of key Christian leaders is well known.

One big name is yet to enter the field - Newt Gingrich. The once polarising speaker is likely to gain significant support from the Republican base keen to have 'anyone but McCain' but unwilling to put a RINO like Guiliani up for President. Gingrich now has the ability to allow the field to fight each other, before declaring closer to the primaries and gaining the initiative and momentum over 'tired' candidates. Gingrich was always able to capture the nations headlines and attention with his 'contract with America' and other initiatives.

It will be interesting to see if the run eventuates - the biggest issue will be money. Gingrich needs to be able to hold off on declaring for as long as possible, yet still have the money available to run against McCain and Guiliania, who have been fundraising for significantly longer.

The real dream candidate for Republicans won't be throwing his hat in the ring for the 2008 election. Jeb Bush, an immensely popular former Florida Governor with true Republican pedigree and appeal to the base, will need to wait a little while until memories of George W Bush fade a little. Still, nobody should rule out seeing another Bush in the White House - especially with the current crop of potentials...

Parliament resumes ...

Kevin Rudd: "My question is to the Prime Minister. Will the Prime Minister now formally repudiate the industry minister's statement in which he said: I am a sceptic of the connection between emissions and climate change?"
John Howard: "No, I will not formally repudiate it. People make different statements about different things over a period of time. I seem to remember the Leader of the Opposition a little under two years ago saying that he was not experienced enough to be the leader of the Labor Party. He now thinks that he is experienced enough to be prime minister."

It is going to be an interesting year...

Beattie acts the leader, rather than the populist - for a change!

It is a rare occasion that I see fit to agree with a decision undertaken by the QLD Labor government. Previous posts on this blog have clearly shown my contempt for one of the worst governments in Australian history - appalling governance and countless failures abound.

But this weekend Beattie has done a rare thing in his political history - taking the choice to lead, as oppossed to just pandering to the popular. In deciding to just make water recycling happen, rather than putting QLD through another referendum that could be hijacked by fear (ala Toowoomba's referendum), Beattie has made the right choice. Recycled drinking water is a reality in international cities such as Singapore - so rural Queensland can most certainly put up with the 'ich' factor. When voters are unwilling to pay more for water, but also unwilling to accept recycled drinking water, a politician needs to step up and make the hard call.

I'll be able to count on one hand the amount of times this will happen, but still, good call by Beattie.

Howard delivers a powerful blow...

If Howard and Rudd were boxers, yesterday's $10 billion Murray-Darling policy announcement would have been a powerful body blow that left Rudd reeling and on the defensive. After several years of allowing the states to attempt to deal with this issue, Howard has stepped in and made a decisive and popular move that allows him to spend on a issue that will win votes but won't threaten to raise inflation (as a middle-class tax cut / benefit might).

It swept aside Rudd's calls for a water summit - Howard assumes responsibility for the Murray-Darling, simultaneously putting pressure on the states to now manage their residential water supplies. The federal government has pledged $10 billion and assumed responsibility for a major water issue - the burden of supplying water to the cities and suburbs is now squarely on the state's back, as is the blame for failure.

Turnbull appeared on the 7.30 report after the announcement during the day at the National Press Club. On a side issue, Turnbull's interview technique needs a lot of work - he waffled his way through several very 'kind' Kerry O'Brien questions and was given a lot of leeway not normally afforded to politicians by ABC interviewers.

This policy allows Turnbull to start making serious noise nationally about the Governments 'realist' green credentials. The next step is to announce policy that funds the research and development of clean coal technology and guarantees the Australian coal industry's future. Value adding our uranium exports by enriching in country, as well as developing stringent procedures designed to prevent proliferation are another area for the Government to focus upon.

Looking forward to the next blow to the Labor agenda - looks like that honeymoon is starting to waiver. Bet Labor are spitting that their $1 million early advertising campaign just got overshadowed by Howard's policy announcement...

How can Costello best sieze the agenda Post-Howard...

Costello's op-ed piece in the Australian today gave a glimpse of the Coalition under its next leader. Highlighting the importance of intergrating migrants into the workforce and wider society, Costello alluded to some of his major differences to Howard. Costello, I believe, will quickly move towards the centre once Howard finally bows out of Federal politics. One of the most important things Costello must achieve is to significantly rejuvinate the Coalition's cabinet and frontbench. He must also establish a new agenda that siezes the initative and provides a clear direction that differs to the Howard years.

The 'new' liberal agenda could include a significant focus on climate change, improvement in education on all levels, continued taxation reform (simplifying the tax system by removing all deductions and lowering rates across the board is a reform worth working towards), improving efficiency in the National economy, education, water and energy.

Costello and his inner circle must focus on building a major agenda to agressively pursue upon Howard's retirement - a rejuvinated Coalition with a Costello driven 'new agenda' is critical for election success post Howard.

Game on...

The reshuffle we all knew was coming delivered the key players to the frontline today. Howard has delivered his 'war' cabinet and front bench for the long run to the polls in 2007. The biggest winner was, unsuprisingly, Malcolm Turnbull. Since his arrival in Canberra Turnbull has been positioning himself as a voice for water conservation issues, and increasingly the enivronment. He has rapidly repaired his relationship with the Prime Minister's office and has mounted an impressive 'charm offensive' to combat any bad blood remaining from his Republican days and Wenworth pre-selection battle. His match up with high profile Labor MP Peter Garrett will prove to be the match up of the 2007 campaign.

Amanda Vanstone was dumped - her performance in the media has been particularly poor lately, and definitely sends the message that Howard is clearing dead wood for the election battle ahead. Greyer than grey Kevin Andrews takes her portfolio, which clears way for a stronger performer in Workplace relations - the Sunrise connection continues to deliver, with Joe Hockey getting a high profile portfolio and match up against Julia Gillard. Kevin Andrews suits Immigration - his softer, controlled, 'machine like' manner will play much better that Vanstone's recent performances on the 7:30 report.

The uncertainty is put to rest with this move - Howard and his team are ready to face off and Kevin Rudd's honeymoon is quickly coming to an end. Let's see how rudely the media returns Rudd to earth...

Religion rising on the national agenda...

An interesting op-ed piece in SMH by Tim Costello and more religious / political commentary from the Australian's Christoper Pearson have highlighted how religion will again play a significant role in the next election. In fact, with Kevin Rudd keen to sieze the relgious vote back from the Coalition, religion could be artificially high on the agenda....

If you needed any further proof, how about Hillsong blesses Rudd's Labor or Rudd's religion strikes a cord in the Daily Telegraph and the Australian respectively.

The 2004 Election had a religious side - Family First gaining plenty of press and attention from the Coalition to secure preference deals. Labor at the time made little attempt to woo the Christian vote, something that Rudd thought was a mistake and sought to correct prior to winning the leadership. But the issue of religion is set to play a much larger role in the 2007 election - Howard is being challenged by Rudd for the Christian vote. The mainstream Christian vote in particular has slid away from Labor, particularly the Catholic vote - it is this little 'l' liberal Catholic / Anglican / Uniting voter that Rudd is particulalry trying hard to woo.

Rudd seems to be buttering up Family First for a more Labor friendly preferencing deal - after all, these preferences traditionaly flow to the Coalition, and would be a painful loss to Howard. Family First has polled at about 5% in recent elections, and will be hoping to improve on its first Federal showing. Steve Fielding will again become an important figure in the lead up to the next election, with both sides keen to woo Family First preferences with family friendly / christian friendly policies and deals.

This is a postive development for Chrisitans - Christian and family issues will once again be high on the agenda for both major parties in the next election. Several high profile Christian politicians are working hard and performing well in all major parties and Family First.

Brian Houston, Head Pastor of Hillsong Church and head of the Assemblies of God denomination, explained well what I believe about Christian involvement in politics;

"I am of the opinion that it is not the role of the church to be involved in party politics but if individual Christians have a desire to contribute to the community through politics, I would encourage them to do so. I see absolutely no reason why Christians should be the only sector of society excluded from having a voice into the direction of our nation."

A new year begins...

2007 is barely begun and already Howard has returned nuclear energy to the national agenda. This strategy was planned and executed in a different era - an era where Howard faced the lacklustre Beazley, battling to show the voters that he had the 'ticker' to be Prime Minister. What is interesting is that Howard and his advisers have decided to lead into the new year, in the middle of Rudd's political honeymoon, with the nuclear 'wedge' aimed squarely at Labor. Howard and his team still see value and political gain from pushing the point - it would be interesting to see what they are planning now they have set the scene for the nuclear debate.

Rudd is steadily working on a 'war chest' through favours from Labor's Premiers and Chief Ministers. Federal Labor seeks to make significant savings by making deals with State Labor that Howard has been unable to achieve. While this all sounds good in theory, I can't help wondering if there are a few reservations from poor performing State governments behind closed doors. Who will Beattie blame if Federal Labor is in government? How will the supposed voter desire for a 'check' ( one party for the state, the other for the nation ) work when a Federal Labor Government returns to power? QLD and NSW Labor must be carefully wieghing up their options, attempting not to burn too many bridges with Howard and hedge their bets for next year's election.

I was interested to see the commentary this week on Fraser's decisions in regards to humanitarian immigration for Lebanese during the 1970's. It shows how careful planning and consideration must always be applied to immigration. Poor choices made three decades ago have delivered a community that to this day faces difficulty integrating into the Australian mainstream where others have not. Fraser blames Governments after his for failing to ensure integration support was adequate - and indeed some of the actions taken by Labor were short term focused, designed to curry favour in Western Sydney. What Fraser fails to own up to is the fact that he went against Department advice, and failed to respond to repeated warnings - this is an issue that will haunt Australia and the Lebanese Australian community for some time to come.

So predictions for the new year - NSW Labor returned to office, Howard returned to office, more of the same in Iraq and Israel. I'll be watching senior Liberal figures for clues to how Howard's retirement in 2008 will change the face of the Coalition Government.