Thursday, July 13, 2006

Masterstroke or blunder?

The fall out from Costello's 'treason' ( his almost perfect loyalty for Howard until now seems to be have forgotten over night - what loyalty do you owe someone who gives no loyalty in return?) was all over the press today. Most commentators are rigidly focused on the here and now - few seem to focus on the next decade - Howard might be here for another 3 - 5 years, but he will definetly be gone by his mid 70's. Many Howard supporters have been attacking Costello's arrogance and smug smirks - but who do they see as an alternative... the far more arrogant Abbott or the smug fishnet stocking wearing Downer (Do they remember his last stint as Liberal leader)?
Ultimately, Liberal supporters and sitting members must come to terms with one thing. Howard's days are numbered - he is in the twilight of his political career. Costello is the future - Howard walking all over Costello has been undermining the potential for a continuing dynasty for the Coalition for years. Costello might not be as popular as Howard, but compare him to Howard in 1994, when he came to power. Costello has none of the baggage that Howard did, and his stock will greatly improve once his ambition is finally realised - he will rise to the occasion.
What remains to be seen is if the move by Costello will deliver him the initiative or undermine his ability to take the top job. Regardless of the result, I firmly believe we will see a Costello 1 1/2 term government, characterised by instablity created by Howard conservatives. A rejuvinated Labor party will have their best chance at snatching victory in 2010 or 2013 - it may even be Bill Shorten that does the job for them....

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