The ghosts of the past return to haunt Beazley

Yesterday saw the inevitable occur - Beazley finally receiving notice that Rudd wanted his job. Beazley responded with what many tacticians may label a master stroke if he retains his position after Monday's party room vote; for the first time in recent years all front bench positions will be put to the vote. This would have sent the factions into hyper drive, and is of course designed to deflect some of the focus off the leadership challenge onto shadow cabinet ministers scrambling to retain their positions.

There are some inevitable positives for Labor out of this shadow cabinet party room vote. For once the factional powerbrokers do not wield all the power in deciding the position holders. Current Deputy Jenny Macklin will surely be dumped after years of non-existent influence in the parliament and public opinion. Peter Garret will surely be accommodated in a position where his public recognition and political potential can be harnessed. Despite these positives, Beazley's decision is destined to greatly undermine the shadow cabinet's performance in the lead up to the next election.

Beazley has all but guaranteed that if Rudd loses, he will also move from his current shadow foreign minister role, one that he has performed so strongly for Labor in recent times. If Beazley wins, his best performer in the last 12 months will then be licking his wounds rather than applying pressure in parliament and the press to the Coalition.

Whatever the result on Monday, the new leader will be yoked with an unstable shadow cabinet made up of competing interests and potentially destabilising rivalries. One of the most significant weaknesses within the Labor party is the inability of the Labor leader to choose their own shadow cabinet, forcing them to work with a less than preferred leadership team.

My own prediction is that Kevin Rudd will be successful in his leadership challenge. Rudd would not have acted without being confident of succeeding - his scheming ambition and conniving manner would not have allowed the possibility of a pre-emptive leadership challenge that derails his rise through the ranks. Labor will once again be the the loser in this leadership tussle - regardless of the result, the obvious weaknesses (soon to be increased in party room blood - letting ) of the opposition will once again set up another Howard - Costello victory in 2007.